British investment firms are preparing to pile into Venezuela, betting that Donald Trump’s toppling of Nicolás Maduro will trigger a resounding economic revival.
Hedge funds and asset managers in London are among those preparing to snap up debt, stocks and invest in property and companies across the country.
Investors are betting that Venezuela’s socialist “Chavismo” system will soon be dismantled and replaced with American-style capitalism, triggering an economic boom that could define the decade.
“The 1990s was a secular trade of the Russian economy, the 2000s were the secular trade of the Chinese economy, 2026 is going to be the Venezuela secular trend, the secular transition from communist country to capitalist,” said Celestino Amore, co-founder of Guernsey-based Canaima Capital Management.
“Everything in petrochemical, oil and gas, agricultural sectors will need to be privatised and everything will need to be rebuilt from real estate, to agriculture, leisure, tourism and mining.”
Mr Trump’s move to oust Mr Maduro and pledge to open up Venezuela has triggered a scramble to identify the best investment opportunities in the Latin American country.
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Lee Robinson, the founder and chief investment officer of London-based Altana Wealth, a hedge fund, said clients were already asking about the possibility of a Venezuelan-focused equity fund.
He said there were “lots and lots of fund managers pouring over [Venezuela] and coming up with fund ideas”.
Interest has quietly been growing as Mr Trump’s administration has ratcheted up pressure for a regime change over recent months.
In November, Barclays organised a private meeting to discuss investment opportunities with María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader, at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, according to Semafor.
Ed Cowen, of London-based Winterbrook Capital, which manages more than $220m (£162m) in Venezuelan assets, pointed out that seven million people had fled the country in a years-long “brain drain” under Mr Maduro and former leader Hugo Chávez – and their return now presented a major opportunity.
He said: “If that goes into slight reverse, which it will, the growth potential in the consumer sector, retail sector, real estate is very high.
“Venezuela is a real economy and it has really suffered under years of mismanagement and sanctions. Once that gets lifted, the economy is then free to attract capital and the growth prospects in most sectors are very significant.”
UBS has described Venezuela as an economic “blank canvas”, given the moribund nature of many state-controlled industries. “There’s room for everything because there’s currently so little,” analysts said in a recent note.
