Key Resistance Levels Cap Any Recovery Attempts
The nearest swing chart resistance is $3.499, followed by $3.634. Short-covering could take out these levels at some point in the future, but any rally is likely to be stopped by the intermediate trend indicator or 50-day moving average at $4.010, or the long-term trend indicator, the 200-day moving average at $4.263.
With the trend decisively lower, the market should remain in “sell the rally mode” until the 200-day moving average is overcome with conviction.
EIA Data Shows Storage Levels Well Above Historical Norms
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Working gas in storage was 3,185 Bcf as of Friday, January 9, 2026. This represents a net decrease of 71 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 33 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 106 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,079 Bcf. At 3,185 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.”
Weak Withdrawal Reflects Warm Weather Impact on Demand
Ahead of today’s weekly storage report, surveys suggested a draw of 87 to 91 Bcf, lighter than the 5-year average of -146 Bcf. Temperatures were much warmer than normal over most of the U.S. for the sample week, while wind generation was only slightly changed, according to NatGasWeather.
Short-Term Cold Shot Forecast, But Limited Price Impact Expected
NatGasWeather’s latest forecast suggests moderate demand between January 15–21. They see “frosty” air advancing across the Midwest and East the next few days with highs of 10s to 40s, lows of -0s to 30s for stronger national demand.
Late this weekend and into early next week, the northern U.S. is expected to experience a more impressive cold shot, including lows of 20s–30s into Northern Texas, the South, and Southeast. It will be mild in the West.
