Jan. 19, 2026, 5:04 a.m. ET
- Beef prices reached an all-time high at the end of 2025 and are expected to continue rising.
- U.S. and Florida cattle herds have fallen to their lowest levels since 1951 due to drought and high costs.
- Strong consumer demand for beef, combined with tight supplies, is driving retail prices higher.
- Experts predict cattle supplies will remain tight, delaying any significant price relief until at least 2027 or 2028.
Beef prices soared to an all-time high as 2025 drew to a close and Floridians should expect to pay even more for hamburger and steaks this year, according to experts.
“For now, beef prices can be expected to remain elevated and likely increase, especially if consumer demand holds strong,” wrote Hannah Baker, beef and forage extension economist at the University of Florida’s cattle research and education center in Hardee County, in her December 2025 Florida Cattle Market Update report.
Here’s why beef prices are so high and why they may climb even more this year for Florida grocery shoppers.
America and Florida’s beef herds are at 70-year lows
U.S. cattle supplies fell to the lowest level since 1951 in January 2025 because of a combination of unprofitable prices, persistent drought and record costs to raise and feed cattle, according to a report by the Washington, D.C.-based American Farm Bureau Federation.
Cattle numbers in Florida also fell at the start of 2025 to the lowest level since 1951. The Sunshine State saw its ranking among top states for beef cattle production fall to ninth place to 10th place with 865,000 head of beef cattle, according to Baker’s most recent annual Florida cattle market report. Her 2026 annual report has not yet come out.
In the meantime, U.S. beef demand has remained strong, which has helped drive up retail prices.
“It’s supply and demand,” said Brian Gaffka, the third-generation owner of Gaff’s Quality Meat & Specialty Foods in Port Orange and DeLand, a business started by his grandfather in 1947. “People really like their beef.”
When will cattle supplies start rebuilding?
Bernt Nelson, economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, in a report published in December noted several reasons why U.S. beef herds might not be significantly rebuilding anytime soon.
“Feeder cattle supplies (beef cows at feed lots) are historically low. Placements and heifer (female cow) numbers are declining not because of domestic herd rebuilding, but due to the sharp drop in Mexican cattle imports following the New World screwworm-related border closure,” he wrote. “At the same time, packers continue to face underutilized capacity, resulting in substantial operational changes that will impact the supply chain for years to come.”
The latter was a reference to Tyson Foods’ announcement in November that it was closing a beef processing plant in Nebraska and reducing capacity at its plant in Amarillo, Texas.
“With near-record input costs and uncertain profit margins, lower prices (for producers) could lead many farmers to market cattle rather than hold back replacements, limiting the potential for near-term herd rebuilding. … Cattle supplies are likely to remain tight well into 2026 and delay meaningful expansion in the U.S. cattle herd until at least 2028.”
What’s the outlook on beef prices for Florida consumers?
“In the current cycle, we are at the bottom of the cycle with low cattle numbers and beef production falling,” wrote Baker in her December Florida cattle market update report.
“Since we have not started rebuilding (herds), beef production is not expected to increase for another two years at least. … As cattle numbers (eventually) increase, beef production will increase, and beef prices will decrease.”
Gaffka offered a more optimistic outlook. “It’s my hope for the future that these beef prices are going to be stabilized in this coming year as we’re getting a grasp of the beef herd and that we’re going to see some relief coming up (in 2027),” he said.
How high have beef prices gotten?
According to the U.S. Consumer Price Index report released on Tuesday, Jan. 13, the average retail cost of beef and veal nationally rose 16.4% in December, compared to the same month in 2024. Raw ground beef rose 15.5% year-over-year, while uncooked beef roasts rose 17.5%. Uncooked steaks had the biggest jump in price, up 17.8% compared with December 2024.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average price of ground beef rose in December to a record high $6.687 per pound, up from $5.605 a year ago, and nearly double the $3.862 per pound average in December 2019, the last full year before the global COVID-19 pandemic.
In the Daytona Beach area, Publix was selling Greenwise ground chuck for $9.99 a pound and Greenwise boneless ribeye steak for $27.99 a pound on Tuesday, Jan. 13.
Aldi in Port Orange was selling ground beef for $5.39 a pound and Black Angus ribeye steak for $14.79 a pound on Jan. 8.
At Gaff’s Quality Meat in Port Orange, lean ground chuck was selling for $7.99 a pound, while boneless ribeye steaks were selling for $28.99 a pound on Tuesday, Jan. 13.
“Here at Gaff’s, a lot of our stuff comes out of Nebraska,” said Gaffka. “There’s a packing plant there that we use that does things holistically. It’s also the right climate (for cattle).
“The most popular cut of beef at Gaff’s is our tenderloin (beef filets). We sell more of that by volume than anything else, closely followed by ground chuck.”
How are rising beef prices affecting Florida restaurants?
Tyler Williams is the president and CEO of two regional restaurant chains in Florida: Stonewood Grill & Tavern and Houligans A Spirited Sports Grille. Stonewood has restaurants throughout Central and Northeast Florida, from Sarasota and Tampa on the state’s west coast to Ormond Beach, Palm Coast and Jacksonville on the Atlantic side.
“Honestly, it’s been an elevated roller coaster (for wholesale beef prices) since COVID,” said Williams.
“For us and many restaurants that serve steak, the filet has been the one we’ve seen that’s taken the most dramatic increase (in wholesale price). From a cost-per-pound standpoint, it’s grown in the last 12 months $6 a pound. That’s a significant increase,” he said.
“I previously worked for the nation’s second-largest steakhouse chain for 27 years. In all those years, I’ve never seen it (wholesale beef prices) grow that much in such a short period of time.”
At Stonewood and Houligans, “we haven’t raised our menu prices to that same level (of increase). We had to eat some of the increase because we don’t want customers to stop coming because of the high prices.”
While his restaurants have modestly raised menu prices, so far customers have been understanding, Williams said. “They see it (rising prices) in the news and in the grocery store. They’re the ones talking about how prices are rising everywhere.”
How one Florida family is responding to rising prices
Daytona Beach resident Nick Burrows said he and his wife look for every way they can to save on food costs as parents of eight kids.
“We buy a lot of meat, but because we have a large family we buy a lot of our meat at the county fair,” he said as he and three of his kids shopped at the new Aldi discount grocery store in Port Orange on Jan. 8. “We purchase a whole animal and then send it to slaughter. We’ll do a couple of pigs and a cow. We actually do several lambs a year as well.”
Ground beef prices on the rise
Here’s how much the average cost of ground beef per pound nationally has risen each year since 2019:
- December 2019: $3.86
- December 2020: $3.95
- December 2021: $4.60
- December 2022: $4.80
- December 2023: $5.21
- December 2024: $5.60
- December 2025: $6.69
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Top 10 states for beef cattle production
Ranked by number of beef cattle
- Texas (4,075,000)
- Oklahoma (1,950,000)
- Missouri (1,864,000)
- Nebraska (1,597,000)
- South Dakota (1,455,000)
- Montana (1,251,000)
- Kansas (1,230,000)
- North Dakota (870,000)
- Kentucky (869,000)
- Florida (865,000)
Source: University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences’ annual cattle market report − January 2025
Clayton Park is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. He covers everything from insurance, utilities and home prices to groceries, gas and auto prices as the Florida consumer pocketbook reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to cpark@usatodayco.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://news-journalonline.com/newsletters.
