In Central America, urban areas are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes as economies in the region continue to recover from the shock of COVID-19. Poor households in rural areas will continue to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as their food reserves have run out and they needed to start relying on markets earlier than usual while prices of food and other inputs remain high. As the lean season progresses, labor opportunities will decline, and food insecurity is expected to increase. Poor households throughout the Dry Corridor, as well as in eastern Honduras, are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the outlook period as previous shocks have deteriorated their ability to cope and they are anticipated to apply Crisis coping strategies until the first harvest in September.
Global price trends – due in part to the war in Ukraine – are pushing up fuel, transportation, and food prices, especially wheat, vegetable oils, and other staple grains across the region. High fertilizer prices are forcing farmers to consider using less fertilizer, buying low-quality fertilizer, reducing the cropped area, or not planting at all. Primera production, availability, and prices are likely to be negatively impacted by these anticipated reduction.
In Haiti, the HTG has continued to depreciate against the USD, further increasing the price of imported goods and limiting access to food for poor households who rely on the market. A lack of employment opportunities and deteriorating security conditions are exacerbating the situation. Similar to Central America, high agricultural input prices are forcing farmers to constrain cropped areas, and production for the season will likely be negatively impacted, despite favorable rainfall conditions.
With their livelihoods disrupted, households in Haiti will continue to apply coping strategies to maintain their level of food consumption. Poor neighborhoods of Port-au-Prince, areas affected by the earthquake, which have received limited assistance, and dry areas lacking irrigation are worst-affected and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while others will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).