Commodity Roundup- March’s Top Performers and Underperformers

Gold, the leading precious metal, fell 11.52% in March, the best performance among the four metals. The volatile silver futures market led on the downside with a 19.69% decline. NYMEX palladium futures fell 18.65%, while NYMEX platinum futures moved 17.99% lower.

Copper, the leading nonferrous metal, experienced a 7.35% decline in the nearby futures contract, while most base metals followed copper lower.

As the planting season in the Northern Hemisphere gets underway, grain and oilseed markets face the risk of a fertilizer shortage, as the Strait of Hormuz is a logistical chokepoint for this critical agricultural input. Soybean futures prices edged only 0.02% higher, while corn futures rallied 2.06%, and CBOT soft red winter wheat futures moved 4.18% higher. Since Russia and Ukraine are major wheat producers, the ongoing war has driven up wheat prices.

As the U.S. construction season gets underway in spring, physical lumber futures move 4.55% higher in March.

With the 2026 peak grilling season only two months away, live and feeder cattle futures rose 6.16% and 5.55%, respectively, in March. Meanwhile, the lean hog futures fell 4.11% for the month.

Soft commodities posted across-the-board gains, with cocoa and world sugar futures moving 14.27% and 11.74% higher, respectively. Cotton, which had been a laggard, posted a 6.69% monthly gain, while Arabica coffee futures rallied 6.27%. The volatile FCOJ futures moved 4.68% higher in March.

Energy commodities were the focal point in March, as markets across all assets followed the oil market, which remained in the crosshairs of the Middle East conflict.

Any escalation in April could send crude oil prices soaring, which would be the bullish case for the energy sector. However, an end to the hostilities or a clear victory over the theocracy could send prices substantially lower. The bottom line is that markets will continue to monitor crude oil prices over the coming days and weeks.

As commodities move into April, they enter spring. Seasonality favors some strength in grains, meats, and gasoline, and weakness in natural gas as the shoulder and U.S. inventory injection season begins. Expect volatility in gasoline prices during the driving season, but the Middle East will dictate the path of least resistance for prices.  The 2026 grilling season is only two months away, which will likely support beef and pork prices. The situation in the Middle East remains the most significant factor for crude oil and oil product prices over the coming days and weeks.

Keep a close eye on those metals, as gold, silver, and copper remain in long-term bullish trends and are showing signs of a bottom. The continued decline in fiat currencies’ purchasing power remains a factor supporting metals.

The bull market in stocks has hit a roadblock, and the economic and geopolitical landscapes will determine if a rebound is on the horizon. Stocks rallied sharply on March 31. Time will tell if the rally was window dressing or the start of a V-shaped recovery. The odds continue to favor a lower Fed Funds Rate under Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chairman, replacing Jerome Powell. However, high oil prices could increase inflationary pressures, derailing rate cuts over the coming months.

Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in April 2026 and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.

On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com