Iran war has altered the LNG market. Goldman names the winners
Goldman Sachs expects the liquefied natural gas market to stay disrupted through 2027 due to the U.S.-Iran war. The Wall Street investment bank thinks three companies can benefit from the new supply and demand dynamic. QatarEnergy’s CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters last week that attacks from Iran have knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. About 3% of global LNG supply comes from Qatar, Goldman analyst John Mackay wrote in a note published Tuesday. With LNG margins already 200% higher on average for 2026 through 2028, Goldman believes tighter balances next winter and long timelines for new supply will continue to support the industry, even if demand growth weakens due to higher prices. One of the companies that stands to benefit is Venture Global , rated buy at Goldman with a 12-month price target of $18.50, implying 17% upside from Monday’s close. “We see a clear and accelerating positive catalyst path, narrowing the cone of uncertainty around medium-term growth plans, and increasingly clear line of sight to funding levers and deleveraging, particularly given the company’s leverage to higher global gas prices,” Mackay wrote. VG mountain 2026-02-27 Venture Global since start of Iran war Goldman also raised its 2026 through 2028 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) estimates for Venture Global by 62% on average. Goldman also named Cheniere Energy as a beneficiary of a tighter market. The bank has a buy rating and a $312 price target on the stock, suggesting almost a 9% gain from Monday’s close. Mackay said Cheniere’s balance sheet and capital allocation strategy leaves it well-positioned to make large stock buybacks after it committed $1 billion in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Lastly, Goldman highlighted Golar LNG , rated buy with a $60 price target. That would equate to a gain of more than 13% from Monday’s close. A potential fourth floating LNG vessel commissioned by the company could drive earnings higher, and Goldman sees a recently initiated strategic review as another positive. Still, a key downside risk for all three companies is the uncertainty that plagues the future of energy markets, according to Goldman. “While our estimates across the LNG complex move higher, significant commodity price volatility is still possible,” Mackay wrote. GLNG LNG line 2026-02-27 Golar LNG vs. Cheniere Energy since Iran war began
