PSU, metals best placed as Indian market shifts decisively to value: Goldilocks’ Gautam Shah
“The entire PSU pack is the opportunity of the year,” Shah said, highlighting broad-based strength across public sector stocks, while excluding defence and railway companies. He identified the State Bank of India as a top pick within the space. Metals are another high-conviction theme for him. “Metals have been my favourite… I do believe that the metals index can appreciate another 15% from here. So, all dips are a buying opportunity,” Shah said, pointing to base metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc as key drivers.
These sector calls, Shah explained, are emerging at a time when the Indian market is consolidating within a broader global equity bull market. Rather than signalling weakness, this phase reflects a transition in leadership—from growth-heavy themes to value-oriented sectors backed by earnings visibility.
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On the broader market setup, Shah stated that the Nifty has been locked in a tight range for nearly six weeks, trading between 25,700 and 26,300. He expects this range-bound movement to continue in the near term. “There is just too much responsibility on the Bank Nifty to keep the market safe,” he said, adding that traditional heavyweights such as IT stocks and Reliance Industries are currently not contributing to upside momentum. Looking ahead, he set a working target of 28,400 for the Nifty over the next 12 to 18 months, contingent on an eventual breakout, which he described as a “very hard-worked move up.”
Shah also flagged areas where investors should remain cautious. He expects the Indian IT sector to underperform both the Nifty and global technology peers, staying range-bound with a negative bias. Reliance Industries, he said, has “run its course” at recent highs and could continue to trade in a range with a possible negative bias, acting as a drag on the index. He was equally sceptical about the domestic defence theme, citing stretched valuations. “I don’t think Indian defence is a theme… I don’t want to do any sort of adventurous investing at this point,” he said.
In commodities, Shah turned cautious on precious metals, stating that gold and silver have likely peaked and may undergo a “large price and time correction.”
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With the Union Budget approaching, Shah suggested the government could announce measures to support capital market participants, possibly related to capital gains tax. He stressed the importance of domestic investors, who have been consistently investing in the market, and said maintaining their confidence is crucial—especially as the return of foreign institutional investors appears unlikely in the near term.
For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video
