Commodities have been some of the best trades so far this year, especially when it comes to metals. In the precious metals space, we have seen gold and silver especially rip higher in recent months. But can they continue their form into June? Here is what the seasonal pattern has to say.
In the case of gold, there isn’t anything too interesting. But for silver, this is how the precious metal has fared over the last 20 years:
Silver monthly seasonal pattern (% change)
June has been the worst performing month for silver during this period, with it falling in 15 out of the last 20 June months. That is typically followed by a stronger July though.
So, how does that play out against what we’re seeing on the charts?
Silver has recently struggled to firmly seal a firm break above the $32 mark. Since then, it has been dragged lower but buyers are holding at support around the $30 mark. The precious metal is down 0.5% to start the month today, with the low earlier hitting $29.78.
As things stand, support at $30 alongside the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the run higher in May at $30.03 is the key level to watch right now. Break below that and there is scope for the pullback in silver to run much deeper, accompanying what we’re seeing in the seasonal pattern.
Besides silver, oil is also one that has a more interesting seasonal pattern for June.
WTI crude oil monthly seasonal pattern (% change)
Historically, oil tends to enjoy a modest string of gains from April to June. And after, that sees oil get dragged into more of a bump road until the end of the year. So, this gives the commodity a more interesting outlook for the month ahead.
Over the weekend, OPEC+ surprised with a clear and concise plan of how they are going to go about with their current production cuts. The plan now is to extend those cuts through to the end of next year and to slowly taper them starting from October. Eamonn had the details earlier here.
It’s a rare occasion that the cartel managed to come together but the bottom line is that the big boys are planning to get more production back on the market in due time. That’s not too bullish for oil prices but OPEC+ might be overestimating the outlook for the global economy for now. They have been the only one with such a view but that has been vindicated by a stronger performance in Q1 at least.
From a technical standpoint, oil has been trading within a bit of a range since May. The range is holding around $76.50 to $80.00 with the 200-day moving average at $79.80 currently also one that is limiting stronger upside. The next trending move for oil will come on a break of that range as such. So, we’ll see if prices will keep with the seasonal suggestion or buck the trend.
