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The Trump administration previously took a 10% equity stake in Trilogy Metals and issued an executive order permitting construction of an access road to Alaska’s Ambler Mining District, unlocking access to the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects that Trilogy partly owns.
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This rare combination of direct government investment and infrastructure approval highlights Trilogy’s role in US efforts to secure domestic supplies of critical minerals such as copper and cobalt.
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We’ll now examine how the government’s access road approval shapes Trilogy Metals’ investment narrative around critical mineral supply security.
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For someone owning Trilogy Metals, the core belief is that its Upper Kobuk assets eventually transition from promising geology into real cash flow, supported by external capital rather than current earnings. The Trump administration’s plan to take a 10% stake, layered on top of a 50‑year right‑of‑way for the Ambler Access Road, sharpens that story by linking Trilogy directly to US critical mineral supply priorities and potentially easing some funding and permitting overhangs. In the near term, the most important catalysts now cluster around how quickly the road project advances from permits to detailed engineering, and whether federal involvement improves Trilogy’s access to capital and partners after a series of equity raises. At the same time, the stock’s very large multi‑year return, zero revenue, ongoing losses and high price‑to‑book ratio keep execution, dilution and political risk firmly in focus.
However, there is one political and permitting risk here that investors really should not ignore. Our valuation report unveils the possibility Trilogy Metals’ shares may be trading at a premium.
Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates stretch from about US$0.83 to US$8.26, underlining how differently people view Trilogy’s potential. Set against that wide spread are the immediate uncertainties around the Ambler road build‑out and continued losses, which could meaningfully influence how this story evolves from promise to performance.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Trilogy Metals – why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!
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