Home Commodities WASDE update: Supportive grain estimates for 2024/25 | articles

WASDE update: Supportive grain estimates for 2024/25 | articles

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The USDA expects US corn production in 2024/25 to fall by over 3% year-on-year from last year’s record crop. This shouldn’t be too surprising with farmers expected to switch to soybeans. Planted area is estimated to fall from 94.6m acres last season to 90m acres. Lower acreage is partly offset by expectations of improved yields, however, obviously much will depend on how the weather evolves through the summer. As a result, output for the next marketing year is forecast at 14.86bn bushels, which is not too dissimilar to market expectations. Despite weaker domestic production and expectations for stronger demand, US ending stocks are still forecast to increase from 2.02bn bushels in 2023/24 to 2.1bn bushels in 2024/25, which would be the highest stock level since 2018/19. However, this is still below the close to 2.3bn bushels the market was expecting.

For the global balance, world production is estimated to total 1.2b tonnes in 2024/25, down 0.7% YoY. The expected declines from the US (-12.2mt), Argentina (-2mt), and Ukraine (-4mt) are largely offset by gains from Brazil (+5mt), China (+3.2mt), South America, and the EU (+3.8mt). As a result, global ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 312.3mt, down just 0.8mt from 2023/24, but quite some distance from the almost 319mt the market was expecting. 

Overall, the WASDE was constructive for corn due to lower-than-expected ending stocks for the 2024/25 season for both the US and global balance sheets.

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