Planned natural gas capacity through 2030 remains steady compared with the past decade, according to new U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data analyzed by EPRI’s Dr. John Bistline, a leading researcher on energy systems and climate policy.
The geography is shifting, Bistline noted, and new gas-fired units are being increasingly concentrated in regions facing sharp load growth and accelerated retirements.
This map does not include the wave of gas turbine upgrades now underway as developers chase faster ways to add megawatts amid five- to seven-year lead times for new units. OEMs like Siemens Energy say uprates at existing sites, already permitted, interconnected and staffed, are becoming a go-to source of near-term capacity, often adding tens of megawatts per machine inside scheduled outages.
Based on internal analyses, Siemens Energy estimates up to ~6 gigawatts (GW) of incremental capacity could be unlocked if all of its eligible U.S. F-class units were upgraded, not counting additional performance benefits.
