Where Next For Precious Metals?

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Gold and silver have been on a strong rally. You might think the recent performance isn’t a big deal compared to the explosive moves companies like Tesla or Nvidia can deliver, but for precious metals, these gains are extraordinary.

When I first started writing about gold on Forbes, I predicted a target of $3,500. Then, as it began to climb, I raised that target to $4,500. Now, who’s to say gold won’t hit $5,000?

Here is a chart illustrating that idea:

Likewise silver – which came late to the party – is already trading around $50. If the momentum continues, $100 will act as a clear price magnet, especially as retail interest heats up:

Silver tends to follow gold, but when it runs, it can run much further.

For me, the entire thesis rests on my mantra: “Gold is for war.” It’s not exactly a cheerful outlook to expect gold at $4,500–$5,000 an ounce. If gold is the canary in the coal mine for geopolitical stress, as I believe, two things are clear: tensions are set to rise, and if they keep tightening for months – or even years – to come, how high could gold go then?

In the model that has worked so well so far, bitcoin is the early, early, warning, because serves as the earliest warning signal because “Bitcoin is for flight.” It was almost a relief to see it drop $2,000 in minutes a few days ago. When both precious metals and crypto are overheated, it doesn’t bode well for global stability. If all three – gold, silver, and bitcoin – rally strongly together, that’s a troubling sign.

This chart shows the bitcoin set up. It has been moving sideways, and when that range breaks, the move is likely to be significant. Approaching crises push BTC up, and when tensions ease, it tends to fall back. The chart looks strong, but I’m not a bull. Then again, I’m not sitting in Washington, Beijing, or Moscow – so it’s not my call.

As concerning as the surge in precious metals may be, if you believe “gold is for war,” the bullish momentum can be explained by other factors. The U.S. government shutdown – while more of a dramatic headline than a true economic shock – still pushes investors toward safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is likely injecting liquidity into the system, and that cash is flowing into hot assets like bitcoin and precious metals, driving them higher.

Then there’s FOMO – the curse of retail investors – often leading to short-term excitement and long-term pain. Gold and silver appear to be in the early stages of FOMO now, even if it hasn’t yet set the internet ablaze. That suggests there could still be room for more upside, especially for silver.

Platinum and palladium will likely follow, with the potential for even stronger percentage gains, though they tend to trail the moves in gold and silver.

As a contrarian, seeing so much bullish sentiment makes me wonder whether the rally is nearing its end. But if the underlying idea that “gold is for war” holds true, we may still have a long way to go.