Some investors are holding back despite record highs for stocks.
Global stocks are at record highs, but positioning data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. suggests some investors including hedge funds are still holding back.
“One group of investors that still appear to be somewhat cautiously positioned are macro hedge funds,” the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. The equity beta of monthly reporting Macro hedge funds — an indicator of their exposure — remains modestly negative despite becoming slightly less so in recent months, they said.
Global stocks have been soaring since a post-“Liberation Day” bottom in April, with investors playing catch-up to resilient economic data, fading recession fears and a more dovish Federal Reserve. The appetite for stocks linked to the artificial intelligence boom has shown no sign of abating, with US megacaps driving major benchmarks to multiple record highs.
The strategists added that speculative positioning in US equity futures is relatively close to their long-run median, after having been well above the median in 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025. This signals that overall exposure is only close to historical average rather than extended, just as the stocks are trading at record levels.
Additionally, while short interest in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) remains within the relatively low range where it has settled since early 2024, the short interest on S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has only partially unwound the sharp increase around the time of the “Liberation Day” announcement, showing that some caution remains.
“This suggests that speculative investors’ exposure to US equities is not particularly elevated and in principle has room to rise,” they said.
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