Home Commodities Keeping China fed as inflation surges brings risk for commodity prices

Keeping China fed as inflation surges brings risk for commodity prices

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BEIJING: Bedevilled by high fuel and fertiliser costs, along with a labour crisis driven by COVID-19 restrictions, China risks a smaller autumn harvest that could supercharge demand for commodities just as the world can afford it least.

Global food prices have spiked since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, a major world producer of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, driving costs to record highs.

Moscow stands accused of pushing the globe to the brink of catastrophe by blockading Ukrainian ports and seizing commodity stocks, driving up prices and leaving the world’s poorest nations facing hunger.

China is relatively self-reliant, producing more than 95 per cent of its needs in rice, wheat and maize.

But relentless COVID-19 disruptions – caused by restrictions on the movement of goods and farm workers – on top of higher fertiliser and fuel costs and issues with access to equipment, threaten the autumn harvest of key crops such as soybean and corn.

Experts caution even a small rise in demand from the world’s most populous nation could drive global commodity costs up sharply.

“The last thing the global market needs right now is for China to become a more active buyer,” said Even Pay, an agriculture analyst with consultancy Trivium China.

Corn prices hit a nine-year high in April, while soybean prices traded near a 10-year high this month.

China is the last major economy to adhere to a zero-COVID policy.

How that manifests itself in the next harvest is uncertain, but Pay said “last-mile logistics” have been complicated by virus restrictions in rural areas afraid of the spread of the disease.

“Villages have been very resistant to letting outsiders in during COVID-control periods,” she added.

If China ends up going to the global market to fill any shortfall, there will be “a big impact” on prices, said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of agriculture research firm Sitonia Consulting.

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