The estimated median growth in the fourth quarter was 4.4%. The economy had grown 2.5% in the fourth quarter of FY21.
“Growth likely hit a road bump in the final quarter of FY22 on a high base as well as onset of the Omicron variant which had necessitated temporary localised mobility restrictions,” said Radhika Rao, executive director and senior economist, DBS Group Research, pencilling in 3.7% growth for the quarter.
The decline in wheat yields due to the heatwave and high base too impacted growth in the January-March quarter.
The National Statistical Office will release the Q4 and FY22 national account numbers on May 31. In the first three quarters of 2021-22, India‘s economy had grown 20.3%, 8.5%, and 5.4%, respectively. With a 4.4% growth in the fourth quarter, the full F22 GDP rise would be 9.2%.
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“Q4 FY22 was a challenging quarter, with the Omicron-fuelled third wave of Covid-19 arresting the momentum in contact-intensive services, and a pervasive pressure on margins from higher commodity prices,” said chief economist Aditi Nayar.
Both agriculture and industry are expected to post a sub 1% growth in the quarter ended March 31, 2022 whereas services growth will print at around 5.4%, aided by pent-up demand, economists said.
see FY22 GDP growth at 8.9% while has forecast an 8.8% year-on-year rise.
The second advance estimate released in February had pegged GDP growth in FY22 at 8.9% as compared to a contraction of 6.6% in FY21.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict that began on February 24, and renewed lockdowns in China in March led to a spike in global commodity prices.
expects a fourth-quarter GDP growth of around 5.5%. “Agriculture has been affected at the margin due to the rabi crop being lower for some products due to the early and excessive heatwave,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, BoB.
Barclays said weakness in the rural economy persisted as workers moved from rural areas to urban centres for employment, and higher input costs and supply shortages weighed on both farming and non-farming activity.
“We forecast India’s economic growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year,” said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist, Barclays.
DBS’ Rao said besides sticky inflation slowing real income growth, the inclement weather and high commodity prices dampened growth.
This subdued reading is likely to be followed by strong double-digit growth in the June quarter on base effects.