Alvaro Diez, Director & Co Founder at Pieocentral LLC.
As an entrepreneur and business developer with more than three decades of experience launching, acquiring and reinvigorating businesses in the United States and Latin America, I have witnessed firsthand how access to capital can make (or break) an idea with real market potential. From building restaurant chains that became household names, to leading international expansion projects, to co-founding companies in renewable energy and technology, I have lived through the challenges entrepreneurs face when financing lags behind opportunity.
That is why I am increasingly convinced that the time has come to rethink and innovate small-business financing, particularly in traditional industries like retail, restaurants and local services, where the need—and the potential for job creation—are greatest. This is no longer a minor inconvenience. It is becoming a national economic risk.
The Widening Gap Between Population And Employment
The broader economic picture highlights the urgency of this challenge. While U.S. population growth has slowed to roughly 200,000 people per month, the economy still needs about 120,000 new jobs per month just to maintain the current employment-to-population ratio. Yet job creation is falling short.
In 2025, monthly job growth has averaged around 75,000, with some months as high as 120,000 or 158,000 new jobs and others collapsing to just 22,000 new jobs, as occurred in August, or even a loss of 13,000 jobs in June. Unemployment has crept upward, signaling that labor demand is weakening.
This widening gap between demographic growth and employment creation could carry severe consequences: higher unemployment, slower economic growth and a heightened risk of recession. Left unchecked, it could also fuel social disruption. The United States cannot afford to sleepwalk into this reality.
Small Businesses: Our Historical Job Engine
The good news is that we already know where to look for solutions. Historically, small businesses have been the engine of job creation in America. They are frequently nimble, embedded in communities and capable of hiring quickly to meet demand. When large corporations hesitate or automate, it is often small firms that step in to provide meaningful work.
But for this engine to run, it needs fuel—and the current financing system isn’t providing it.
A Warning We Ignored
In 2011, Jim Clifton, then CEO of Gallup, published The Coming Jobs War. The central message is that the world could face dire consequences if population growth outpaces job creation. He warned that societies that fail to create enough jobs will face instability, regardless of factors like GDP or stock market performance.
A decade later, his warning feels eerily prescient. The gap he described is no longer a future risk—it is today’s reality. We are seeing firsthand the consequences of a financing system that prevents small businesses from scaling to meet the needs of a growing population.
Why Traditional Financing Falls Short
The financing bottleneck is structural. Banks are typically designed to lend only when repayment is highly secure. They require collateral, strong credit histories and stable cash flows. This makes sense from a risk perspective, but it automatically excludes the very entrepreneurs who could drive job creation.
At the same time, non-guaranteed loans—when available—are often prohibitively expensive. High interest rates and onerous terms make them inaccessible to most small businesses.
This leaves entrepreneurs with only two options: self-funding or limited pools of angel capital. Both paths are valuable but insufficient at scale. The result is predictable: too little investment, too few new businesses and too few jobs.
The Path Forward: Innovating Financing Models
If we are serious about avoiding an employment crisis, I believe we must innovate in small-business financing. This means rethinking how capital can be deployed in ways that balance investor protection with the urgent need for growth.
Several models show promise:
• Revenue-based financing: Loans are repaid as a fixed percentage of revenues, reducing the burden during slower months while aligning investor returns with business success.
• Pooled risk funds: These are community or industry-specific funds that spread risk across dozens of small ventures rather than placing it all on one borrower.
• Hybrid private-public vehicles: In these programs, the government shares downside risk, enabling private lenders to extend capital more confidently to small firms.
• Technology-enabled underwriting: This involves using real-time data and AI to evaluate small businesses on performance metrics beyond traditional credit scores.
These solutions already exist in niche markets. What is needed now is scale, adoption and support to make them mainstream.
The Cost Of Inaction
We cannot continue to rely solely on big corporations to generate enough employment. They will not—and they cannot. Corporate efficiency and automation reduce head count, not expand it. If we expect to meet the employment needs of a growing population, the financing of small businesses must evolve.
The cost of inaction is clear: stagnation, unemployment and growing instability. The benefit of action is equally clear: vibrant communities, renewed entrepreneurship and a labor market capable of meeting population demands.
A Call To Action
The “coming jobs war” Jim Clifton described is no longer theoretical. It is here. And I think the most powerful weapon we have is small-business financing. By making capital more accessible, flexible and sustainable, we could unleash a wave of entrepreneurial energy that not only creates jobs but also helps secure the social and economic stability of the nation.
The choice before us is stark. Either we reimagine financing to unlock the power of small businesses, or we resign ourselves to an economy that cannot keep up with its people.
The time to innovate is now.
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