Gold (XAUUSD:CUR) prices held steady on Thursday as Middle East tensions continued, which countered pressure from uncertainty around the timing of potential rate cuts. While gold is traditionally seen as a safe way to preserve wealth during economic and geopolitical turmoil, the non-yielding metal suffers when interest rates rise. Spot gold was trading +0.02% at $2,034.61 by 6 am ET.
Oil prices also rose after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas. The wider Middle East tensions have kept the market on edge since October, with limited progress in talks to end the Gaza conflict. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. gasoline and middle distillate stocks also buoyed the oil market.
ING analysts reported crude oil prices remain range-bound. However, refinery margins continue to strengthen, driven by tightness in middle distillates. Gasoline has also played a role in this strength, with cracks rising on the back of falling US inventories.
JPM said its view of $10 higher oil embeds zero risk premium and a 400 kbd unwind of voluntary cuts. “The oil market was further kept on edge last week as investors got a reminder of the risks lurking on the balance sheets of smaller US banks, when shares in New York Community Bancorp cratered almost 40%.”
Turning to base metals, prices were supported by a relatively softer dollar and upbeat sentiment in Chinese equities, while tin outperformed the sector amid Indonesian supply tightness. Tin prices climbed after shipments of refined tin from major producer Indonesia dropped 99% in January from last year, as miners faced delays in work plan approvals, Reuters reported. Metals trading activity, however, was slow as top consumer China is about to enter the Feb. 9-16 Lunar New Year holiday.
Elsewhere in the agriculture market, the USDA is scheduled to release its monthly WASDE report later today. Soybeans, cocoa were trading in green, while wheat fell.
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