and that means higher inflation
I’m intensely interested in the markets and have invested for decades. I started working professionally on Wall Street in the late 1980s. It was there, surrounded by professionals of all disciplines I rapidly learned you can’t fully understand The Stock Market unless you look at both other markets, as well as the broader economy.
So I tend to read lots of books on economics, particularly those considering history where I can understand how changes in the broader economy impacted stocks. Many of my friends call me “The Master of Arcane Financial knowledge”, because I frequently trot out a historical anecdote about something, almost anything, that happened in markets. One aspect of markets I find very interesting is
in society as well as the economy and the markets. I’ve briefly described economic and market cycles in the past
I’ll leave discerning social cycles to a future article. Note if we accept markets move in cycles (if you don’t please post data proving your point because as a retired Wall Street Quant I get bored with baseless word salad, aka “opinions”) then we must consider commodity price cycles, where commodities move from undervalued to overvalued. And back again. For evidence of these consider four generally accepted commodity price cycles
This commodity cycle was driven by a combination of the first industrial revolution in addition to widespread urbanistion, as people moved off farms to cities. They relocated to higher paying and more stable jobs in the cities. We saw commodity prices move above trend, staying there for decades until improvements in extraction and refining technology increased supply.
