Indonesia is unlikely to enjoy a 2022-level commodity boom despite China’s recovering growth and geopolitical tensions.
Ahmad Zuhdi Dwi Kusuma, an industry and area analyst at state-owned Bank Mandiri, did not rule out the possibility of a potential widespread commodity price hike as long as geopolitical turmoil, especially the Iran-Israel conflict, continued to escalate.
But a 2022-level commodity boom was unlikely as price hikes were limited to just a few types of commodities like crude oil and gold, Zuhdi said.
“It’s different from 2022, when all commodities rose significantly, driven by [the lifting of] mobility restrictions and economic recovery,” he told The Jakarta Post on Monday.
Gold prices rose to an all-time high above US$2,400 per ounce on April 12 and are up around 13 percent since the start of the year amid growing geopolitical tensions and strong purchases by central banks.
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Josua Pardede, chief economist at publicly listed lender Bank Permata, expected the Iran-Israel conflict to send crude oil prices skyrocketing considering that Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers, produces around 3.9 million barrels of oil per day and exports 1.29 million barrels of oil per day, as per 2023 data.
