Weakening Outlook for Commodities: A Close Look at COMT
The emerging scenario in the commodities market, particularly energy commodities, indicates a potential weakening. The US Dollar Index, which recently fell below 101, has climbed over 102, potentially spelling trouble for dollar-denominated commodities due to the inverse relationship with the dollar’s value. With financial conditions tightening since October, and expectations of slower Q1 and Q2 US real GDP growth, coupled with a downward trend in commodity price technicals, the iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF (COMT) has received a sell rating.
COMT: An Outlook
COMT, which seeks to track a broad range of commodities and offers futures strategies to minimize investment costs, can serve as a hedge against inflation. However, current inflation expectations remain low, with a 10-year expected inflation breakeven rate under 2.2%. Despite potential bullish influences such as Middle East tensions that could drive oil prices up, WTI crude oil prompt-month prices are down, and gasoline prices are close to falling below $3. Gold, despite its strength, only constitutes a small portion of COMT’s exposure.
The Portfolio and the Risks
COMT’s portfolio leans heavily towards energy, which is showing vulnerability. The holdings are 57% in Energy, 18% in Agriculture, 11% in Industrial Metals, 8% in Livestock, and 6% in Precious Metals. It’s essential to note COMT’s moderate expense ratio of 0.48% and its weak share-price momentum. The fund has a history of volatile dividends and a poor Risk grade, yet it possesses acceptable liquidity.
Comparison and Caution
From a technical perspective, COMT mirrors the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC), and both are exhibiting signs of potential price breakdowns. Given this landscape, a sell rating on COMT is advised, with the suggestion that a tactical buying approach might be more prudent after a potential 10% pullback in price.
