(Bloomberg) — Hedge funds are creeping back into the Swiss franc after weeks betting against it, setting the currency up for a short-term rebound.
Leveraged investors, who had been short on the franc since late January, turned long last week, according to CFTC data. It’s a big change from a month ago, when short bets hit the highest level in over a year.
The moves could offer some relief to the franc, which plunged after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates last month and indicated that it no longer intends to support the currency. It may also get an additional boost later this week on any dovish signals from the European Central Bank.
“With the rates markets pricing in a fairly aggressive SNB easing cycle already, you could argue that some SNB-related negatives are in the price of franc,” said Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole. “At the same time, the ECB could surprise on the dovish side in a blow to the euro.”
Marinov said the euro-franc cross could fall to 0.9750 this week after hitting an 11-month high of 0.9849 late last week. The franc has tumbled more than 5% versus the euro so far this year, and is one of the worst-performing Group-of-10 currencies.
The total net position of non-commercial investors, which include leveraged funds and asset managers, is still short on the franc and at the highest level since late 2019.
While the franc’s longer-term prospects remain bleak as the SNB is expected to keep cutting interest rates, options are also pointing to some short-term relief.
One-week risk reversals on the euro versus the Swiss franc — a barometer of market positioning that compares the demand to buy a currency versus the appetite to sell — suggest traders have become the most bullish on the franc since early January.
–With assistance from Vassilis Karamanis.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
